Lead times for high-capacitance, high-voltage MLCCs (10μF and above in X6S/X7R) have stretched noticeably over the past two months, with some Japanese and Korean part numbers moving from 8 weeks to more than 20. General-purpose 0.1μF and 1μF parts remain loose, and spot prices for them are still drifting down.
The cause is mix, not total capacity. An AI server carries several times the MLCC count of a standard server, concentrated in high-capacitance, small-case, high-temperature ratings. Manufacturers allocate capacity to those orders first, and commodity parts get squeezed out.
In practice: split your MLCC bill of materials into server-related and general-purpose groups. Book the first group 16-20 weeks out, and hold 4-6 weeks of safety stock on the second. A flat buffer ratio usually ties up cash in parts that never run short while the critical ones go unordered.